“เวียดนาม” มีดีอย่างไร ถึงเติบโตทั้งตลาดหุ้น และเศรษฐกิจจริง | Talk ลงทุนแมน EP.48
Short Summary:
This Talk ลงทุนแมน episode discusses the investment opportunities in Vietnam's stock market and economy. The key argument is that Vietnam is poised for significant growth, driven by factors like government reforms (including anti-corruption efforts), a young and skilled workforce, and its potential upgrade to emerging market status (from frontier market). This upgrade, coupled with anticipated inclusion in the FTSE index, is expected to attract substantial foreign investment. The episode features an interview with a fund manager who details their investment strategy focusing on a select few high-growth companies across key sectors (retail, technology, infrastructure, and finance). The fund manager emphasizes long-term investment rather than speculation, mirroring the shift observed in the Thai stock market. The episode also includes a preview of a future series exploring Vietnam's economy in more depth.
Detailed Summary:
The episode begins by highlighting the potential for significant growth in the Vietnamese stock market, contrasting it with the Thai market's recent focus on dividend-yielding stocks rather than growth. The speaker emphasizes Vietnam's 6% GDP growth as sustainable and achievable.
The discussion then shifts to Vietnam's upcoming upgrade to emerging market status and its inclusion in the FTSE index. The interview with the fund manager from Asset Plus reveals that Vietnam's market is currently dominated by retail investors (90%), with only 10% foreign investment. The upgrade is expected to significantly alter this balance, attracting more foreign capital. The fund manager explains the recent changes in regulations regarding foreign investment, specifically the removal of pre-funding requirements, as a crucial step towards this upgrade. They anticipate a significant influx of foreign investment, particularly from global investment houses, once the upgrade is finalized (projected for early next year).
The conversation then explores the underlying factors driving Vietnam's economic growth. These include government reforms aimed at tackling corruption, a young and increasingly skilled workforce, and the country's strategic focus on attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) through various free trade agreements (FTAs). The fund manager highlights the positive feedback loop between industrial growth, job creation, increased disposable income, and higher consumption. They also emphasize the government's long-term vision and consistent policy implementation, despite occasional delays, as contributing to this growth.
A significant portion of the discussion centers on the Asset Plus investment strategy in Vietnam. The fund manager explains their approach of focusing on a small number (5-7) of high-growth companies across four key sectors: finance, technology, retail, and infrastructure. This strategy prioritizes long-term value creation over short-term speculation. Specific examples are given, including FPT (technology) and Mobile World (retail), highlighting their competitive advantages and growth potential. The fund manager acknowledges the higher risk associated with this concentrated portfolio but emphasizes the potential for significant returns based on their in-depth research and long-term outlook.
Finally, the episode promotes a forthcoming series ("Inside on Vietnam economy") that will delve deeper into the Vietnamese economy, featuring on-the-ground reporting and interviews with various stakeholders. This series aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of Vietnam's economic landscape and the opportunities and challenges it faces. The episode concludes by reiterating the significant potential for long-term investment in Vietnam, emphasizing the need for careful selection of companies and a long-term perspective.