BLACK SWAN วันมืดมิด ในชีวิตการลงทุน EP.5 ดร.ไพบูลย์ เสรีวิวัฒนา
Short Summary:
This episode of "BLACK SWAN วันมืดมิด ในชีวิตการลงทุน" features Dr. Paiboon Seriviwatana, discussing his 38 years of experience in investing. The main concept revolves around navigating market crises and developing a robust, long-term investment strategy. Key points include the importance of diversification (10-15 stocks), avoiding margin trading, maintaining emergency funds, and adopting a value investing approach (bottom-up analysis combined with top-down macroeconomic analysis). Dr. Paiboon emphasizes learning from mistakes and adapting strategies after experiencing major crises like the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis ("Tom Yum Kung Crisis"). The implications highlight the need for a well-defined financial plan, risk management, and a long-term perspective, even during market volatility. The detailed process involves thorough company research, understanding macroeconomic trends, and recognizing personal limitations in risk tolerance.
Detailed Summary:
The interview begins with an introduction to Dr. Paiboon Seriviwatana, a seasoned investor and academic. He recounts his early investment experiences, initially mimicking others without a structured approach due to limited data availability in the early days of the Thai stock market.
Section 1: Early Investing and the Importance of Diversification: Dr. Paiboon describes his early investment strategy as lacking a formal methodology. He emphasizes the importance of diversification, a lesson learned from his early experiences and consistently taught to his students. He advocates for a portfolio of 10-15 stocks to mitigate risk, stating, "If one stock fails, the other 9 can still sustain the portfolio."
Section 2: Navigating Major Crises: The conversation focuses on the significant market crashes Dr. Paiboon has witnessed, including the Gulf War, Black Monday, and most notably, the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. He details the devastating impact of the "Tom Yum Kung Crisis," where the Thai stock market plummeted, and explains how he started over from scratch after losing significant capital. This section serves as a crucial illustration of the unpredictable nature of the market and the need for resilience. A detailed explanation of the causes of the 1997 crisis is provided, highlighting factors like excessive borrowing, currency speculation, and unchecked lending practices.
Section 3: Evolving Investment Strategy: Dr. Paiboon describes his shift from a less structured approach to a more value-oriented strategy. He now employs a bottom-up approach, focusing on individual company fundamentals, combined with a top-down analysis of macroeconomic factors. He stresses the importance of selecting high-quality companies and emphasizes that his current approach wasn't initially used but rather developed after experiencing numerous crises.
Section 4: Mistakes and Lessons Learned: Dr. Paiboon openly discusses his investment mistakes, admitting to errors in about half of his stock picks. He attributes some mistakes to insufficient research and unforeseen circumstances like factory explosions or unexpected geopolitical events. He uses specific examples of investments in a medical company (hindered by foreign patient access issues) and a financial company (experiencing an inexplicable surge in price followed by a sharp decline due to his own greed). He highlights the importance of acknowledging limitations and cutting losses when necessary.
Section 5: Identifying Promising Investments: He shares his criteria for selecting stocks, emphasizing the importance of understanding the company's fundamentals, its management's track record, and the opinions of financial analysts. He provides examples of successful long-term investments, highlighting the importance of patience and a long-term perspective. He also mentions the use of analyst reports as a tool but cautions against relying solely on them.
Section 6: Ethical Considerations and Life Philosophy: Dr. Paiboon shares his personal ethical guidelines for investing, stating he avoids companies involved in alcohol, gambling, or activities he finds morally objectionable. He emphasizes the importance of incorporating a sense of purpose and ethical considerations into one's investment strategy. He also stresses the importance of financial planning and incorporating spiritual practices (like Dharma) into one's life, not just focusing solely on wealth accumulation. He considers unexpected illness and death as the biggest "black swans" in life, emphasizing the importance of preparedness and risk management beyond market fluctuations.
Section 7: Advice for New Investors: The interview concludes with advice for new investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding one's risk tolerance, avoiding over-leveraging, and seeking professional help if needed. He cautions against trying to get rich quickly and stresses the importance of a balanced approach to investing and life. He strongly discourages the use of margin trading and emphasizes the importance of investing only what one can afford to lose.