ตำราเรียนชีวิตของดร.นิเวศน์ : The kase study EP.01
Short Summary:
This podcast episode features Dr. Niwes, a prominent figure in the value investing (VI) community, discussing his life's journey and the lessons learned that shaped his successful investing strategy. Key points revolve around the concept of "winners' games" vs. "losers' games," illustrated through the analogy of tennis. Dr. Niwes emphasizes the importance of long-term value investing, careful planning and preparation, and understanding the psychology of market participants (including the role of genes in decision-making). He details his transition from a "fighter" mentality to a "selector" mentality in his career and investments, highlighting the pivotal role of his book "Tee Tak" (ตีแตก). The episode also touches upon his approach to raising children and navigating the complexities of business competition, drawing parallels to military strategy. The overall implication is that a well-defined strategy, combined with a deep understanding of human behavior and market dynamics, is crucial for long-term success. The podcast uses Dr. Niwes's personal experiences and book choices as case studies to illustrate these principles.
Detailed Summary:
The podcast is structured around a discussion of Dr. Niwes's life and investment philosophy, using his book "Tee Tak" as a central theme. The conversation is broken down into several key sections:
Section 1: Introduction and the "Winners' Game" vs. "Losers' Game" Concept: The hosts introduce Dr. Niwes and discuss the changing landscape of the VI world. Dr. Niwes introduces the concept of "winners' games" (where high activity leads to success) and "losers' games" (where high activity leads to failure), using the analogy of professional vs. amateur tennis. He argues that the stock market is often a "losers' game," advocating for a long-term, less active approach.
Section 2: Early Life and the First Investment Article: Dr. Niwes recounts his early experiences, including writing an article on "The Losers' Game" while still in university and before entering the stock market. This article, never before publicly shared, laid the groundwork for his investment philosophy.
Section 3: Preparation and the Importance of Planning: The discussion shifts to the importance of preparation and planning, illustrated by Dr. Niwes's unexpected victory in a university debating competition despite lacking initial skills. He emphasizes that thorough preparation and strategy can overcome a lack of inherent talent. This section extends to his views on the lack of planning in various sectors, particularly Thai temples, suggesting a strategic approach could lead to greater success.
Section 4: The Transition from "Fighter" to "Selector": Dr. Niwes describes his life in two phases: a "fighter" phase (before age 44) characterized by struggle and a "selector" phase (after age 44) marked by a more deliberate and strategic approach to investing. The turning point was losing his job and being forced to choose a new path, leading him to focus on value investing.
Section 5: "Think Big, Don't Think Small" and its Impact: Dr. Niwes discusses translating "Think Big" and its influence on his mindset and the success of MLM and insurance sales representatives who adopted its principles. He highlights the importance of a long-term vision and the power of a simple, yet powerful, concept.
Section 6: The Creation of "Tee Tak" and its Core Ideas: The podcast delves into the creation of Dr. Niwes's book "Tee Tak," emphasizing its focus on viewing stock investment as a business rather than a game. He explains that the book's core idea was developed while he was unemployed, drawing inspiration from various investment books like "One Up On Wall Street" and "Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits." The book aimed to simplify the concept of value investing, making it accessible to a wider audience.
Section 7: Overcoming Setbacks and Maintaining Perseverance: Dr. Niwes shares his experiences of facing numerous setbacks throughout his life, from romantic failures to professional challenges. He emphasizes the importance of perseverance and continuous self-improvement, even in the face of defeat. He highlights the importance of continuous learning and adaptation.
Section 8: Early Investing Strategies and the Role of Market Shifts: Dr. Niwes discusses his early investment strategies, focusing on export-oriented companies and consumer goods during periods of economic change. He explains how he adapted his approach as the market shifted, emphasizing the importance of identifying "winners" during periods of rapid societal change.
Section 9: Competitive Strategy and the Importance of Understanding Competition: The conversation moves to the influence of books on competitive strategy, such as those by Jack Trout and Al Ries, and Michael Porter. Dr. Niwes highlights the importance of understanding competitive dynamics and applying military strategy analogies to business decisions. He uses examples like the Battle of Stalingrad to illustrate the importance of strategic positioning and resource allocation.
Section 10: Behavioral Finance and the Role of Genes: Dr. Niwes discusses the impact of behavioral finance and the role of genes in human decision-making. He suggests that understanding the "selfish gene" concept can provide valuable insights into human behavior, both in personal and business contexts. He uses examples from the movie "Parasite" to illustrate how understanding human motivations can inform investment decisions.
Section 11: Investing in Vietnam and the Future of Investing: Dr. Niwes shares his experiences investing in Vietnam and discusses the opportunities and challenges of investing in emerging markets. He emphasizes the importance of adapting investment strategies to different market environments.
Section 12: Advice for Young Investors and the Importance of Simple Strategies: The podcast concludes with advice for young investors, emphasizing the importance of simple, long-term strategies and the need to adapt to changing market conditions. Dr. Niwes stresses the importance of self-awareness and understanding one's own strengths and weaknesses. He also discusses the importance of maintaining a healthy work-life balance and avoiding burnout. The episode ends with a reflection on the importance of continuous learning and adapting to changing circumstances.