ส่องพอร์ตกองทุนเวียดนามกับดร.นิเวศน์ และผู้จัดการกองทุน | TISCO Fun(d) Station Live EP.7 | 221122
Short Summary:
This TISCO Fun(d) Station Live episode discusses the Vietnamese stock market's recent downturn and its future prospects. Key points include a liquidity crisis stemming from bond market issues and government response delays, contrasting with strong underlying economic growth. Specific examples of Vietnamese stocks (FPT, MWG, REE, VRE) are analyzed, highlighting their potential as "super stocks" despite the current market volatility. The episode details the TISCO Vietnam Equity fund's investment strategy (a fund of funds approach focusing on growth stocks) and the launch of a new RMF (retirement mutual fund) offering. The overall implication is that while short-term volatility exists, the long-term potential of the Vietnamese market remains strong due to its demographics and economic fundamentals. The investment process used by TISCO to select funds is explained, emphasizing due diligence and a focus on growth at a reasonable price (GARP).
Detailed Summary:
The episode begins with an introduction by the host, Sapapong, who highlights the recent sharp decline in the Vietnamese stock market and introduces the guests: Dr. Niwes, a renowned Thai investor, and Sakol, a TISCO fund manager. The discussion then shifts to an analysis of the Vietnamese economy.
Section 1: Macroeconomic Overview of Vietnam:
Dr. Niwes attributes the market downturn primarily to a liquidity crisis triggered by irregularities in the bond market. He notes that while Vietnam's economic growth remains strong (over 10% in Q3), the government's slow response to the bond market issues has created uncertainty and triggered widespread selling by domestic investors. However, he points out that foreign investors are actively buying, viewing the situation as a buying opportunity. Dr. Niwes expresses optimism for the future, believing that once the liquidity crisis is resolved, the market will recover quickly. He draws a parallel to the 2008 Thai financial crisis, highlighting the market's eventual rebound. Sakol agrees, emphasizing the liquidity crisis as the main problem and highlighting the low valuation of the Vietnamese market as an attractive entry point.
Section 2: TISCO's Vietnam Fund Investment Strategy:
Sakol explains TISCO's Vietnam Equity fund's strategy, a fund of funds approach investing in three actively managed funds. The selection process involved quantitative analysis (10-year performance, risk metrics) and qualitative due diligence (conference calls with fund managers to understand their investment styles). The chosen funds focus on growth stocks, particularly in the consumer sector, with a GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) approach. Sakol highlights the fund's diversification across large-cap and small-cap stocks to manage risk.
Section 3: Stock-Specific Analysis:
Dr. Niwes analyzes four example stocks (FPT, MWG, REE, VRE) from the TISCO fund's top holdings. He favors FPT (technology) and MWG (retail) due to their strong growth potential and market leadership, despite MWG's recent setbacks in its supermarket expansion. He also highlights REE (infrastructure) for its stable business and strong management (consistent share buybacks), and VRE (retail real estate) for its growth prospects as Vietnam's middle class expands. Sakol agrees with Dr. Niwes' assessment of FPT and MWG, emphasizing FPT's global reach and MWG's potential turnaround.
Section 4: Long-Term Outlook and Q&A:
Both Dr. Niwes and Sakol reiterate their positive long-term outlook for Vietnam, citing strong demographics, competitive advantages (lower labor costs), and the influx of foreign investment. They address viewer questions regarding the impact of market consolidation, the handling of the liquidity crisis by the Vietnamese government, and the attractiveness of specific sectors (e.g., healthcare). The discussion concludes with the announcement of TISCO's new Vietnam RMF (retirement mutual fund), designed to offer long-term investors a tax-advantaged way to participate in the Vietnamese market. The inclusion of an ETF in the RMF to improve liquidity is also explained.
The overall tone is optimistic despite acknowledging the current challenges. The experts emphasize the importance of long-term investment and the potential for significant returns if the liquidity issues are resolved.