【投資本解説】『わが投資術』の投資戦略を解説します【割安成長株投資】
Short Summary:
This video reviews Kiyohara's investment strategy book, focusing on identifying and investing in undervalued, growing small-cap stocks. Key concepts include prioritizing Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio while checking balance sheets, avoiding Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio, utilizing net cash ratio for screening, deriving appropriate Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios from growth rates and interest rates, understanding risk premium, and recognizing the compounding effect of increasing profits and P/S ratios in small-cap stocks. The speaker emphasizes the importance of contrarian thinking, long-term holding, and carefully managing risk, particularly in short selling. Specific examples of successful and unsuccessful investments are analyzed, highlighting the importance of understanding market dynamics and company fundamentals. The speaker also discusses the challenges of replicating Kiyohara's success due to its reliance on experience and unique insights.
Detailed Summary:
The video is structured around a review of Kiyohara's investment book, interspersed with the speaker's own commentary and experiences. It can be broken down into the following sections:
1. Kiyohara's Core Investment Philosophy: The speaker introduces Kiyohara's central idea: significant losses are avoided by holding minority positions and contrarian views. The example of shorting Toyota (a highly unlikely event) illustrates this point – a small number of short sellers would easily cover their positions if wrong, minimizing losses. The speaker emphasizes that investment ideas stem from differing from the majority opinion. Questioning conventional wisdom is crucial for generating investment ideas.
2. Kiyohara's Investment Methods: The core of the discussion centers on Kiyohara's specific methods:
- Prioritizing P/S Ratio with Balance Sheet Scrutiny: Kiyohara emphasizes the importance of the P/S ratio but stresses the need to examine the balance sheet (BS) simultaneously. Two case studies demonstrate how identical operating profits can yield vastly different P/S ratios based on debt levels, highlighting the importance of a holistic approach.
- Rejecting P/B Ratio: The speaker agrees with Kiyohara's dismissal of the P/B ratio, arguing that the book value of assets, especially fixed assets, often doesn't reflect their true market value. An example shows how a low P/B ratio can be misleading if fixed assets are overvalued.
- Net Cash Ratio Screening: Kiyohara uses the net cash ratio (liquid assets + 70% of marketable securities – liabilities) / market capitalization to screen for undervalued companies. The 70% factor accounts for potential capital gains taxes on marketable securities. The speaker simplifies the initial screening by using only liquid assets. Companies with a net cash ratio of 1 or more are considered extremely undervalued. The speaker notes that such opportunities are more common among small-cap stocks.
- Deriving Appropriate P/E Ratios: This section delves into a more complex aspect, calculating the appropriate P/E ratio using the present value of future cash flows, considering the discount rate (interest rate) and growth rate. The speaker explains the concept of present value and its implications for long-term investments, highlighting the impact of inflation. Kiyohara rejects the traditional risk premium approach, preferring to focus solely on the discount rate derived from the market's observed P/E ratio.
- Identifying Growth Opportunities in Small-Cap Stocks: The speaker explains how the combination of profit growth and rising P/S ratios leads to significant increases in market capitalization for small-cap companies, especially those with limited analyst coverage. This creates a compounding effect that drives returns.
3. Kiyohara's Short Selling Strategy: The speaker discusses Kiyohara's short selling approach, which involves identifying overheated stocks with high trading volume and significant short interest. The strategy focuses on entering short positions when short interest decreases significantly, indicating potential short covering and price increases. The speaker cautions against individual investors attempting this strategy due to the lack of access to crucial short-selling data readily available to larger firms.
4. Case Studies: Several case studies illustrate Kiyohara's successes and failures, emphasizing the importance of in-depth company analysis, understanding market sentiment, and adapting to changing circumstances. Examples include Nitori (a successful long position), a short position during the IT bubble, and investments in REITs and other sectors during various market events (including the Lehman Shock and the COVID-19 pandemic). The Olympus case study highlights the importance of recognizing opportunities even in crisis situations.
5. Number of Holdings and Conclusion: The speaker concludes by discussing the optimal number of holdings for individual investors, suggesting a concentrated portfolio of around 10 stocks. The speaker also shares their own investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of contrarian thinking, risk management, and long-term perspective. The video ends with a discussion on the difficulty of replicating Kiyohara's success due to the unique combination of expertise, experience, and market timing. The speaker stresses the importance of developing one's own unique investment approach and adapting it to changing market conditions.